Managerial Pressure Mounts: Who's on the Chopping Block in the Premier League?

Surprisingly, every Premier League club has retained the same manager since the season kicked off. However, history suggests that this stability might not last long as the first managerial casualty could be just around the corner. So far this season, no manager has been shown the door, a rarity as only three times in the past decade has November rolled around without a single sacking. The current campaign began with a slate of 11 managers appointed in 2026, which likely contributed to this early patch of calm. Yet, as we near the end of October and an international break, the pressure is mounting. Michael Carrick is currently the frontrunner to be the next to depart. He’s joined by the bosses of the clubs languishing in the relegation zone: Crystal Palace’s Pierre Sage, Régis Le Bris of Sunderland, and Oliver Glasner at Nottingham Forest. Of this group, Carrick’s exit seems imminent, but the real intrigue lies in the performances of the bottom three teams. Sunderland finds itself at the foot of the table, with predictions from Opta suggesting they might stay there. However, Le Bris's side has had a challenging run, facing five of the league's top seven teams so far. His previous success in leading the club back to the Premier League and into Europe still earns him a bit of goodwill. Despite the tough fixtures, Sunderland was in a decent position before a 3-1 loss to Coventry, where they had an expected goals (xG) tally of 1.8 compared to their opponent's 0.7. This season, they've consistently underperformed, scoring 6.2 goals less than their xG suggests they should have. Their next five matches against Chelsea, Aston Villa, Tottenham, Liverpool, and Newcastle will be another tough test. At least they’re not facing the same struggles as Nottingham Forest in front of goal. Nottingham Forest has recorded an xG of 14.7, the fourth highest in the league. Yet, they have yet to match or exceed their xG in any game this season, indicating a troubling finishing issue rather than outstanding goalkeeping from opponents. Diving deeper into the stats, Forest’s xG on target (xGOT) stands at just 7.4, which is less than half of their overall xG. This glaring inefficiency has resulted in only six goals scored, meaning they are falling short by almost a goal per match. Last season, no team in Europe’s top five leagues was worse than 0.5 goals below their xG, hinting that Forest’s fortunes could eventually change. But the question looms: is owner Evangelos Marinakis patient enough to wait for that turnaround? Glasner’s xG data shows better promise than anything seen under the four managers fired last season, but whether Marinakis pays heed to these numbers remains uncertain. After a loss to Brentford, Glasner pointed out a lack of physicality in his squad, stating, “We are outrun by the opposition in every single game. We have to change it.” However, distance covered stats indicate that while Forest has indeed been outrun lately, their physical output isn’t as dire as he suggests. The deeper concern lies with the xG performance, which is worse at Crystal Palace under Sage. Palace has struggled with a lack of sprints, averaging just 96.9 per match—the lowest in the league. They’ve faced similar challenges with new managers in the past, having previously parted ways with Frank de Boer after five games and having Patrick Vieira initially falter before finding some success. While Palace has been wasteful in front of goal, their defensive woes are more troubling. Last season, under Sage at Lens, they conceded the fourth-fewest expected goals in Ligue 1, but now they rank second worst in the Premier League for that metric this season, especially when excluding penalties. A significant part of this issue is due to injuries and suspensions disrupting their defensive lineup, demanding a quick resolution from Sage. Next up for Palace is a clash with Liverpool, followed by potentially favorable matches against Coventry and Hull post-international break. These could serve as a pivotal point for Sage to either ignite his tenure or provide an opportunity for his successor to hit the ground running. Only time will reveal how this managerial situation unfolds, but Palace looks like the club most in need of a change.