The Illusion of Control: Why Clubs Fire Managers on Feelings, Not Facts

It’s that time of year again when managers find themselves in the hot seat, and the chatter is loud: he had to go, it was inevitable, his time was up. Every season, we hear these familiar refrains echoing through the football community. A manager gets the boot, and there’s a collective nod of agreement that it was the only option, as if the club was left with no choice. It’s a strange phenomenon, this unscientific method of determining when a manager should be dismissed. It’s a blend of vibes, results, and a lack of better scapegoats. It’s like that famous line about recognizing obscenity: you just know it when you see it. Let’s take a moment to discuss Michael Carrick, the manager of Manchester United. He’s currently overseeing the club during its first dip into the relegation zone since 1986, yet there’s a strong consensus that he isn’t the one to blame. The problems at United are seen as structural, but still, he’s on the chopping block because... what are you going to do? By the time you read this, he could be gone, on the verge of departure, or still lingering in that awkward space between being in charge and being out the door. Carrick initially stepped up as caretaker manager and impressed everyone with his performance. He was handed the permanent role, but now that same skill set is being questioned. The very abilities that saved the club last season are now viewed as inadequate. Critics argue that he’s been outmaneuvered by rival managers and overwhelmed by the packed schedule. Last year, he managed to navigate the challenges, but perhaps the stakes feel different now. Let’s not forget that his predecessor, Ruben Amorim, was ousted for being too rigid in his tactics, despite having been brought in under similar circumstances. It’s a classic case of football’s fickle nature. However, sticking by a manager can pay off. Sir Alex Ferguson, for instance, was appointed during a challenging time for United and faced calls for his head in the late '80s. But he persevered, eventually leading the club to monumental success. Mikel Arteta at Arsenal faced similar scrutiny. After a rocky start in the 2021-22 season, many were calling for his head. Fast forward a few months, and he’s now a champion manager—amazing how quickly opinions can shift. Interestingly, a graphic circulating online shows Carrick has actually outperformed Arteta in their first 27 league matches, yet the contrasting paths they’ve taken highlight a stark difference in patience from club hierarchies. Nowadays, there’s little room for managers to grow into their roles. The freedom to adapt, learn from missteps, and rebuild is often stripped away, leaving them under constant pressure. Carrick has transitioned from a promising figure to one facing ridicule. Once seen as calm amid chaos, he’s now described as morose, even fumbling with an umbrella during a press conference—a metaphorical representation of his struggles. And he’s not alone in this managerial limbo. Crystal Palace’s Pierre Sage is in a similar predicament—sacked but not officially out yet. Meanwhile, others like Régis Le Bris at Sunderland and Matthias Jaissle at Newcastle find themselves precariously safe, while expectations shift under their feet. The world of football management is unpredictable, with even those who start well facing sudden scrutiny. Clubs seem to make decisions based on instinct rather than strategy, projecting an image of careful consideration when, in reality, many are simply gambling with their next choice. It’s astonishing that despite advances in analytics and data-driven decision-making, hiring or firing a manager often feels like a game of chance, where the outcome is as uncertain as flipping a coin.